Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Report | Q3 2017

On behalf of our team of dedicated professionals at Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates, we are pleased to present our comprehensive market report for the third quarter of 2017. In this detailed report, you will find information on the market segments making up the Jackson Hole area. As the market leader in Jackson Hole, we have developed a more dynamic report that sheds fresh light on the insights and trends that are shaping our real estate market.

Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Report | Midyear 2017

 

When comparing the first half of 2017 to the first half of 2016, the overall number of transactions increased 10%. The area furthest south of Jackson experienced the largest increase in transactions, up about 1200%. The Town of Jackson continued in popularity garnering the most transactions of any area in the valley with 115 transactions. The price segment with the most market share was the $500,000 – $1 million price segment, 40% of the transactions. Approximately 40% of the transactions in the first half of 2017 were cash transactions.

The lack of inventory continued to be a significant issue in the Jackson Hole real estate market. As of mid-year 2017, there were 12% fewer listings when compared to this time last year. The inventory shortage was a contributing factor in increased sale prices, average sale price was up about 5%.

Vacant Land Mid-Year 2017

Single-family vacant lot sales spiked in the first six months of 2017 with 49 sales (up 75%).  Meanwhile the average and median sale prices dropped, down 25% and 14% respectively, when compared to mid-year 2016.   The drop in the average and median sale prices is a result of the spike in the number of vacant land sales under $1 million (up 143%).  NOTE: Most areas of the valley experienced an increase in vacant single-family lot sales over last year.

Who is buying vacant land?  The 2017 demographics have changed some: While half of the buyers are still second homeowners and retiring baby boomers, the remaining half are buying for spec building.  This trend continues to bode well for our local construction industry.  NOTE: Most residential vacant land purchases were cash (59%), bought by end-users intending to build a home for themselves or to speculate.

Single-family vacant lots under contract – 11 properties currently in negotiations (down 8%), of which only two are listed for under $500,000 and five for over $1 million.

Available inventory of listed lots dipped 9% from Q2 2016.  Following suit the dollar volume and median list price are down 11% and 7% respectively.  The drop in the median list price reflects more inventory in the under $500,000 segment of our market.  NOTE: Supply will continue to outpace demand so do not expect to see appreciation in this segment for the remainder of 2017.  Based on mid-year results, there are currently 18 months of available inventory.

Current available inventory breaks down as follows: 15 single-family lots under $500,000 (up 15%); 49 lots between $500,000 and $1 million (down 10%); 41 lots between $1 and $2 million (down 15%); 20 lots between $2 and $3 million (down 17%); 11 lots between $3 and $5 million (up 22%); 13 lots between $5 and $10 million (down 15%); and five lots over $10 million (down 17%)

 

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-second-quarter-report/vacant-land/

Condo & Townhome Mid-Year 2017

Condo/townhome sales experienced a slight increase, with 105 sales so far in 2017 (up 3%).  Even though the average sale price increased 7%, the median sale price dipped, down 5% ($570,000) when compared to 2016.  The decrease in the median sale price is a direct result of the increase in the number of sales under $300,000 (up 120%).

The number of sales under $500,000 spiked (up 120%), whereas the number of sales between $500,000 and $1 million remained the same.   The hot spot: Town of Jackson where the number of sales rose 22%.

The number of condos/townhouses under contract dropped slightly, down 7%, with the average and median list prices following suit, down 13% and 52% respectively.  The drastic drop in the median list price is the direct result of fewer townhouses under contract in Shooting Star.

Available inventory of condo/townhomes experienced a drop of 25% (64 listings), pushing the average and median list prices up 29% and 8% respectively.  The increase in average price can be attributed to the decrease in listings under $500,000 (down 54%).  Based on mid-year results, current inventory offers less than four months of condo/townhome stock.  NOTE: Of the current available inventory, 58% is listed for less than $1 million and 19% under $500,000.

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-second-quarter-report/condotownhome/

Single Family Mid-Year 2017

Demand for single-family homes continues to grow; yet sales are down 10% so far in 2017. Following suit, the median sale price decreased 10%. The decrease in sales reflects the lack of homes listed for under $1 million; as of July 1, only 28 homes were listed for sale under $1 million valley-wide (down 18%). NOTE: In the first six months of 2017, 40% of all home sales were under $1 million. Properly priced listings in this segment continue to receive multiple offers. The selling strategy is simple: To spark immediate interest, work with your Realtor to effectively price your property according to current market values.

Single-family homes under contract are down 26%, yet the dollar volume increased 17%. Following suit, the average and median list prices increased 57% and 39% respectively, when compared to mid-year 2016. With the lack of available inventory under $1 million the above $1 million segment is now the most active in the valley, with 80% of the homes currently under contract in this segment.

The upper-end of the single-family home market has slowed in all segments with 61 home sales for more than $1 million (down 16%). The Luxury segment ($3-plus million) experienced the greatest decrease in sales, down 35% when compared to mid-year 2016 (although three sales have been logged over $10 million). Upon closer inspection, 56% of the available inventory over $3 million has been on the market for more than one year, and 22% for two-plus years. This long tenure on the market suggests that some of the luxury home inventory is overpriced for the current market. NOTE: 42% of homes listed for over $3 million are more than 20 years-old. Only 11 out of the 73 available were built within the last five years.

The inventory of listed homes decreased by 4% to 163 listings, with only 28 listed for less than $1 million (down 18%). In contrast, the average and median list prices both rose by 11%. NOTE: The 2017 median list price ties with 2007 for the highest ever, at $2.495 million. With 2007 marking the all-time high for our market, one can argue that the Jackson Hole housing market has fully recovered from the Great Recession.

Current available inventory breaks down as follows: one single-family home under $500,000; 27 homes between $500,000 and $1 million (down 21%); 40 homes between $1 and $2 million (no change); 20 homes between $2 and $3 million (up 3%); 30 between $3 and $5 million (up 11%); 31 between $5 and $10 million (up 11%); and 12 over $10 million (up 9%).

 

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-second-quarter-report/single-family-homes/

Vacant Land Q1 2017

Single-family vacant land sales have reversed course with 23 sales in Q1 2017 (up 64%). Meanwhile, average and median sale prices were down 37% and 15% respectively when compared to Q1 2016. The decrease in average and median sale prices can be directly attributed to the increase in the number of vacant land sales under $1 million (up 157%). NOTE: In 2005 and 2006 there were two times the number of sales in the first quarter, and yet the same number of available listings at the end of the first quarter. The hot spot for vacant land sales was the Westbank, where 48% of the sales occurred.

Who is buying vacant land today? While 61% of these buyers have local addresses, the majority are still second homeowners and retiring baby boomers. Most have either exhausted their search of existing home inventory and decided to build their dream home, or purchased an adjoining lot for privacy and/or view protection. Of course, this continues to be great news for our local construction industry. NOTE: To date in 2017, 61% of all residential vacant land purchases were also cash.

Single-family vacant lots under contract are showing signs of continued improvement with 14 properties currently under contract (up 75%). Of these, 21% are listed for under $500,000 and 7 are listed for under $1 million.

Available inventory of lots for sale are down 6% from Q1 2016, yet the average and median list prices are unchanged. This indicates that listing prices for single-family residential vacant land have stabilized. NOTE: Even though supply will continue to outpace demand, expect to see some appreciation in this segment in 2017. Based on year-end 2016 results, there are currently 19 months of available single-family vacant land inventory.

 

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-first-quarter-report/

Condo & Townhome Q1 2017

Condo/Townhome sales have decreased for the second year in a row, with only 31 sales in Q1 2017 (down 21%). The average and median sale prices showed strong increases, up 38% and 18% respectively, when compared to Q1 2016. The decrease in the number of sales can be directly attributed to the lack of affordable listings. This is evident when the average list price for a condo/townhouse in 2017 is $1.51 million (up 21%). NOTE: This registers as the highest average list price ever, topping the second highest back in 2008 by 11%.

The hot spots for condo/townhome sales were in Teton Village and the Town of Jackson. Teton Village had 10 sales and the Town of Jackson had 12 sales, but both were down in the number of sales by 29% and 14% respectively.

The number of sales under $500,000 decreased by 50%. This decrease can be directly attributed to the 50% drop in available inventory priced under $500,000 in the first quarter of 2017. NOTE: While the numbers of sales in the above $1 million segment (11) did not change from 2016, there are currently 28 under contract, with 20 of those in Shooting Star.

The number of condo/townhouses under contract is up slightly, while the dollar volume is down 8%. Of the 48 currently under contract, 20 are Shooting Star Townhomes, where listing prices start at over $3 million. NOTE: 16% of the current inventory under contract is listed for under $500,000, with the least expensive listed at $275,000.

Available inventory of condos/townhomes decreased 21%, which equates to the second lowest level of available condo/townhome inventory in 10 years. This decrease in inventory can be directly attributed to a decrease of locals trading up from a condo to a single-family home with a back yard, and the lack of new affordable condo construction. NOTE: Teton Village holds 54% of the current available inventory, with an average list price of $2.1 million. Based on year-end 2016 results there are currently three months of available condo/townhouse inventory. Also noteworthy: 61% of the current available inventory is listed for less than $1 million, and 18% of the available inventory is listed for under $500,000.

 

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-first-quarter-report/

Single Family Q1 2017

Single-family home sales, up 24%, reflected a healthy increase. In contrast, the average and median sale prices decreased in the first quarter of the year—35% and 15% respectively. The decrease in the average and median sale prices is the direct result of an increase in sales under $1 million (64%), and a decrease in the sales above $1 million (down 13%). As of April 1, there were only 11 homes listed for under $1 million. Properly priced listings under $1 million continue to generate multiple offers. The selling strategy is simple. To spark immediate interest, work with your Realtor to effectively price your property according to current market values.

The number of single-family homes under contract increased slightly, and the dollar volume is up 20%. Following suit, the average and median list prices increased 17% and 13% respectively when compared to Q1 2016. With the lack of available inventory under $1 million, the locals’ segment of our market has very little to choose from. The segment with the most under contract is between $1 and $2 million (43%).

The upper-end of the single-family home market has picked up slightly with 28 home sales over $1 million (up 8%). The $3+ million segment experienced a decrease in sales, down 25% when compared to Q1 2016. Meanwhile, the number of homes listed for over $4 million spiked this quarter (up 27%) while available inventory between $1 and $4 million dropped 26%. NOTE: 40% of homes listed for over $1 million have been on the market for more than 12 months, and 58% of those for more than two years.

Available inventory of homes for sale is down by 10% (112 listings) with only 11 (10%) of them listed for less than $1 million. In sharp contrast, the median list price broke an all-time record registering $4,295,000 (up 75%). Following suit the average list price increased 28% to $4.757 million, or the second highest ever in the first quarter. This, of course, is bad news for many locals who continue to focus on well-priced, single-family homes listed for under $750k (no such properties are currently on the market). If you are looking for a home within this price range, be prepared to act quickly as inventory is scarce. Have your loan approved and be ready to offer cash with very little contingencies.

The least expensive single-family home listing, at the time of publication, was $849,000. Built in 1978, it is located in the Town of Jackson and offers 2,000 sq. ft. with three bedrooms and two baths on .17-acres. The most expensive home, sited on a spring creek north of Town, is listed for $28 million. The home, built in 1993, spans 11,500 sq. ft. spread out over four bedrooms and five baths. The 40 private acres offer 3/4 mile of trout filled spring creeks and private golf under the shadow of the Tetons.

 

This information was derived from the Hole Report, the full report can be found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/2017-first-quarter-report/

Vacant Land Year-End 2016

When compared to 2015, the number of ​lot sales and dollar volume dropped 43% and 42% respectively in 2016. ​In contrast, the average and the median sales price tipped up 2%. ​As this segment of the market continues to struggle, expect little appreciation in 2017 valley-wide. The decrease in vacant land sales reflects the current construction environment, where remodel and new home construction demand remains unfulfilled. For those still interested in wading into these uncertain waters, there are currently 45 single-family lots for sale under $1 million, providing a variety of options.

Unlike the diminishing supply of single-family homes, the current sales pace for vacant lots will take 21 months to deplete existing inventory. ​That said, some signs bode well for an acceleration in lot sales: Because half of the current home inventory was built 20+ years ago, and available home inventory stands at the second lowest level in 25 years, ​we predict that demand for vacant land may pick up in 2017​. ​NOTE: 82% of the vacant land sales in 2016 were purchased with cash.

 

This information came from the Hole Report, found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/

Condo & Townhome Year-End 2016

When compared to 2015, the ​number of sales dipped 8​%, and the dollar volume dropped 15%. Bucking the trend, the ​median sale price rose 11%. ​Why? Supply and demand! This segment was the first segment to rebound after the recession, especially under $500,000. Consider 2013: 137 condo/townhomes sold for under $500,000 versus 77 in 2016. Today, there are only 13 units currently available for under $500,000 (1 under $300K). NOTE: The sub-$500,000 segment accounted for 36% of all condo sales activity in 2016.

Condo/townhouse hot spot: JH Racquet Club/The Aspens boasted the highest increase in the number of condo sales in 2016, up 36%. Following suit, the average sale price rose to $553,196 (up 4%) and the ​median sale price​ was $550,000​ (up 11%).

 

This information came from the Hole Report, found here: http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com/